The Rational Manager, by Kepner and Tregoe (1965): Image downloaded: https://covers.openlibrary.org/b/id/9888127-L.jpg

When I was freshman years ago, a family friend, Caloy Y., introduced me to what he claimed was an “almost perfectly reliable method for solving problems”. The name of the method was the Kepner-Tregoe or KT method named after Charles Kepner and Ben Tregoe. As soon as I could, I went to the university library and borrowed a copy of The Rational Manager (1965). There have been three versions since that first one.

The KT Method that outlines a systematic approach to problem-solving and decision-making in business. The authors introduce a framework consisting of four steps: Problem analysis, Decision analysis, Potential problem analysis, and implementation.

Problem analysis was what hooked me to the book, as Caloy was most passionate about it. He thought one could solve any problem with it.

Problem analysis began by stating clearly what the problem is. KT defined a problem as a deviation. The deviation could be specified even further by comparing IS and IS NOT:

1. What is vs. What is not. My car’s horn is working, my starter is not.
2. When is vs When is not. My starter failed at noon, but not in the morning.
3. Where is vs Where is not. E.g., The problem happened at school, but not at home.
4. Extent. The problem seems confined to starting; no other systems of the car appear to be affected.

Four simple questions leading systematically to at least two hypotheses, which we evaluate based on how consistent they are with the answers we gave to these questions.

To cut the long story short, the best hypothesis in the example is vapor lock. Vapor lock happens when the fuel in the fuel line or carburetor turns into vapor due to high temperatures. The vapor obstructs the flow of fuel to the engine, preventing the engine from starting. It happens especially to older cars. To confirm this hypothesis we might try opening the hood for a few minutes to cool the engine down.

Caloy was not exactly right when he said this method was almost perfectly reliable. Sometimes letting the car cool won’t help even if the problem was vapor lock. Many problems have complex causes. The idea of a vapor lock might come easily, but only to one who knew how cars worked. There’s no golden road to knowledge; it amazes me how many car owners don’t study. We have a friend — he’d been driving for years — who did not realize that when the steel wires of your tires begin to show, you’re seriously courting violent death. Good we saw it.

When we study, we should seek information “for” and “against”, separate fact from assumptions, and keep from jumping to conclusions. Avoiding these traps is not often easy, and sometimes are the downfall even of modern car experts who do not know how older ones worked.

It all hinges on the art of asking questions. KT ignited my interest in that art very early. Questioning became my profession: I’m a scientist. And I use all the KT methods, not just that one.

Newer versions of the KT method are now in books called The New Rational Manager. One technique that wasn’t in the first version has been called the pre-mortem. It begins with the question:

“If I failed, why would I have failed?”

As a regular user, I find it interesting how the pre-mortem is sensitive to cognitive biases such as jumping to conclusions and not separating fact from assumption — errors we normally commit after a problem has occurred.

The KT method is not perfect, but it is a system. I tell people: you don’t HAVE to be in the right mood. Remember: the right mood never comes when you need it most to solve a problem or make a decision. Forget moods; use the system.

The Rational Manager is one of a few books outside my profession that I’ve read more than three times. It’s one of the top 10 books that have influenced me the most.

(Q.C. 230228)